特朗普对加拿大加征高达25%关税，这到底是怎么回事？

Answer: less than 1% of Fentanyl in the US makes its way there from Canada. The Fentanyl thing is just a way to circumvent the restrictions of the free trade agreement between Canada US Mexico, which disallows these tariffs.

When something like this happens, and there's no rational reason as to why, you have to think about who benefits to understand why it's happening. There are two obvious answers:


The rich. Trump's friends and political cabinet are all millionaires and billionaires. These tariffs will decimate businesses and jobs and cause massive inflation, so the rich will be able to increase prices and acquire assets, company stocks for cheap, just like they did in Covid.
Countries at war. Russia and Israel will have a much easier time waging (and possibly winning) their unpopular wars with western countries fighting amongst themselves in a useless trade war.

Answer: I get wanting to give him the benefit of the doubt, but he has simply not earned it. 

His behavior is consistently short-sighted and self -aggrandizing. He speaks at the level of an 8-year-old. Staff from his first presidency claim he refused to pay attention in briefings. He tried to edit the path of a hurricane with a sharpie and then lied about lying about it when it's on camera. This is not a smart man we are talking about.

You call your guesses 'uneducated', but each of them is reasonably stated, and based in rational thought. Trump's actual statements on the subject of Canada are usually just fully incoherent. 

If there is any rational thought behind the moves Trump makes during this administration, I am quite sure that those thoughts will not originate from Donald Trump's skull.

If you really want to know where he's getting all these funny ideas from, pay attention to who he is speaking to. He surrounds himself with idiots, rich conmen, and people clever enough to manipulate him effectively. So when you run across someone who seems too smart to fall for his crap, you have probably found someone who is pulling the strings.

Answer: Because Trump is, quite frankly, not a competent negotiator or businessman and thinks of deals as zero-sum games that you need to brute force your way through. This was the general vibe of the "greed is good" 1980s which is when Trump developed his business strategies (and which he never grew out of). Seriously... back then there were business manuals about how to project strength and aggression in the most ridiculous ways.

Even at a business dinner with partners you were encouraged to order dishes that made you seem "tough." Steak au poivre? That projects strength and masculinity and will help you DOMINATE negotiations. Salmon en croute? Why the fuck are you ordering that? Is your vagina acting up and you need something delicate on the ol' tum-tum? Might as well roll over and die right now if that's how you're gonna handle things.


Previously I thought this is just Trump bluffing and trying to gain an advantage before trade negotiations with Canada, until I just saw the news that both countries have decided to impose general tariff on each other.


Just to be clear OP, bluffing with a threat in order to gain a negotiation advantage is a technique that competent negotiators avoid whenever possible. Especially if you're negotiating with someone you're locked into a long-term relationship with (i.e. a geographical neighbor).

It's the sort of dumb sort of caveman machismo approach that people rely on when they don't know how how to actually negotiate. Creating unnecessary tension and hostility with someone you're permanently parked right next to is not a good tactic. Threats and bluster are techniques that are inherently risky when they fundamentally don't have to be. Even if you "win" and scare them into compliance, that trust is broken and they'll still resent you for it. Over time try to disentangle themselves from you. Just look at all the stories on r/entitledparents where kids abandoned shitty, domineering parents who tried to control their lives with intimidation and bluster.

Here's a roadmap for how professional negotiators actually create effective deals:


Exercise emotional restraint. Losing your cool and getting emotional places pride on the line. It leaves you open to being manipulated, makes you more prone to react impulsively, and keeps you from strategizing effectively.
Focus on the issue you're trying to deal with, not the people involved. You're here to hammer out a deal, not snipe at the other side to get a sense of satisfaction that you "won." Redirecting any animosity towards the problem at hand also creates a situation where both sides are working together to solve the stated problem. And teaming up is much more effective than two people working at odds.
See things from the other side's perspective. Knowledge is power, and helps you understand the situation more effectively when you have a more holistic perspective. Additionally, empathy can help build rapport and trust, leading to the other side being more open to agreeing with you.
Consider what each side actually needs rather than what they say they want. This is a big one. Generally when we describe our positions ("I want X amount of money" vs "I can't afford to pay you X") this represents only the immediate solution to the more fundamental underlying need ("I'm struggling to afford this month's rent since my landlord just increased it" vs "I want to satisfy you at minimal cost"). If we understand the actual needs we're trying to fulfill, we can figure out more creative, realistic, and alternate solutions to meet those needs ("Hey turns out I'm friends with your landlord and he owes me a favor. I can convince him to not raise your rent"). Hooray! We've just negotiated a deal that is low-cost and meets the actual needs of both sides.


I'm sure y'all can see that Trump is fucking terrible at all these four approaches. He's just not built for it.

Answer: Trump is obsessed with this idea of a trade deficit between the US and Canada/Mexico/China. He mistakenly believes that because the US is a net-importer this makes the US a loser in a trade war, and that the US is therefore subsidizing those economies. (Total economic non-sense)

Exactly what Trump's plan is isn't clear because despite his rhetoric on the campaign trail he refuses to elaborate on his long-term plan when asked.

Given his history of wanting steep tax cuts it's possible that this is an attempt to generate revenue to deal with the deficit and cut income taxes.

Trump is a big fan of President William McKinley who was known for his tariffs. Trump even went so far as to rename a mountain in Alaska back to Mount McKinley in his first week in office. So that gives us some insight to his thinking.

We can assume then his plan might be:


Raise tariffs on foreign trade, therefore forcing the exporting countries to pay 25% or more taxes on exports for the privilege of exporting goods to the US. (there's a significant flaw here, I'll get to it in a moment)
Use this income to lower the deficit and justify cutting income taxes that hurt rich people more. Continue to hack+slash at existing government spending.
Encourage US businesses to hire US workers and bring manufacturing back to US shores.


That sounds all fun and good, so what's the problem?

Trumps plan seems to be centered on levying tariffs which will force foreign countries to pay extra taxes to the US to export their goods for US consumption... except that's not how tariffs work.

Tariffs aren't paid by the exporting country, they are paid by the US importer, so the actual person paying the tariffs will be the US consumer in the form of higher prices.

Donald Trump either doesn't understand how tariffs work, or is willingly lying or ignorant of this fact.

If Donald Trump follows through on his plan and continues to double down on tariffs to get his 'revenge' on these countries for Fentanyl, immigration, or whatever excuse it is today it will cripple the US economy.

Prices for everyday items will keep going up, because it's the US consumer that ultimately pays the tariffs. US domestic goods will also go up in price, as the local producers will know they can charge more and get away with it (because that's how capitalism works).

This will drive inflation a lot harder than now, and the average person in the US will suffer. Trump will no doubt blame China, Canada, Mexico, or Biden/Obama for these problems instead of taking responsibility for his own mistake.

Trump seems to have this idea that we can return to a pre-1920's model of economics where Tariffs will pay for the US government. Except the Pre-1920s the US federal government was far smaller than it is now. There was no interstate highways, no airports, the average person had a 6th grade education. The US military had no airplanes, no tanks, no trucks, and no missiles because those things hadn't even been invented yet. No social security, no medicaid.

It would be impossible to fund the US federal government with tariffs alone, the math doesn't work.

The current tariffs will only account for 5% of the US Federal budget, but the tariffs will need to be 100% or even 200% on imports to make a dent in income tax revenue. This is turn will cripple in the import market and lower the tariff income because no one will be buying imports anymore.

This whole plan is insanity

One economist described the situation as: "A man that lacks a basic understanding of global economics and mechanisms is now in charge of the US economy wielding tariffs like a bull with a bazooka in a china shop."

Trump seems to think that levying tariffs will cause the foreign countries to bend the knee and give whatever concessions he wants rather than pay taxes on exports. He even bragged about making Canada the 51st state and giving Canadians "a great tax cut" in the process. He's treated this like a leveraged buyout, crippling another business financially so he can sweep in and buy them out looking like a savior.

Except for the major flaw that he doesn't understand how tariffs work...

Canada + Mexico seem to be banking on the idea that if you tariff the Red States and by extension hurt Trump supporters directly, one or more of them might finally stand up to Trump and get him to stop.

100% tariffs on Tesla for example might get Musk to personally step in and confront Trump on his tariffs.