首页 / 法律问答 / 他们又开始玩那套把戏了!把那些“meme股票”打包成有毒的债务,简直就是2008年金融危机的翻版!

他们又开始玩那套把戏了!把那些“meme股票”打包成有毒的债务,简直就是2008年金融危机的翻版!

商业律师 4 回答
Okay, so I've been looking into where those huge GME short positions might be hiding since January and trying to figure out why the price has been so weirdly cyclical this year. Basically, it seems like these cycles are tied to derivatives settlement deadlines, which are predictable and getting more intense each time. Here's what I've pieced together: **Total Return Swaps (TRS)** Think of TRS as a way to bet on a stock (like GME) without actually owning it. One party pays another a fee in exchange for any price changes in the stock. This lets funds go short without borrowing shares, and these synthetic short positions are poorly regulated with lower margin requirements, also they're not reported. Remember the 2008 crash? Total return swaps were a big part of that. After Dodd-Frank, these swaps were supposed to be transparent and have proper collateral, but Wall Street found loopholes by shifting them offshore, away from U.S. regulators. The reason for all this swap speculation? Leverage and greed. Margin requirements are lax, especially offshore, and LIBOR fees have been super cheap, making it easy for hedge funds to get synthetic short exposure. When their bets go south, prime brokers bend over backwards to help them out, just like Credit Suisse did with Archegos, ignoring risk assessment breaches for months. These swaps often have quarterly reset dates, which could be what's driving the GME price cycles, not futures contracts (since single equity futures are rare). **Portfolio Swaps** Think of these as wrappers around multiple TRS agreements. Prime brokers can package multiple synthetic short positions into a single Portfolio Swap. If oversized short positions are bundled together and hedged with the same reset deadlines, you get meme-stock shenanigans. It's weird that a bunch of unrelated stocks have been moving together for months. Also, I found some legal language that mentions "Put Option exposure inherent in the Portfolio Swap," which makes me wonder if deep out-of-the-money puts are involved. Archegos' collapse was partly due to GME swap exposure, and we're seeing these quarterly moves across multiple meme stocks, so it looks like they were bundled into a Portfolio Swap at some point to hide bad debt. **When Did This Start?** GME and other meme stocks have been highly correlated in 2021, and I wanted to know when that started. Turns out, before 2021, GME didn't consistently correlate with other meme stocks. But as soon as the new year hit, they all started moving together. This shouldn't happen in a free market. I even built a model that predicts GME price based solely on the other meme stock prices, and it works pretty well! This suggests that GME price has been suppressed since the June run-up. The model shows that GME should've spiked to $400 based on the other meme stocks. **In short:** * Meme stocks started moving together at the very beginning of 2021. * They might be packaged in Portfolio Swaps. * You can predict GME price just by looking at other meme stocks, which is insane. **Conclusion** Wall Street is dodging regulations by moving swaps offshore, and Portfolio Swaps could be hiding a bunch of bad short positions in meme stocks. My analysis shows that all the meme stocks tested started moving with GME at the same time – early 2021. Maybe a new rule came into effect, or they were all squeezing and then shifted into swaps when we saw the options fuckery? Are the price movements driven by prime broker hedging of Portfolio Swaps and contract reset dates? Either way, shorts are screwed. The death-spiral-swaps-cycle might've begun in early January, but there's no way out for them. I like the stock!
回答次数 (4)
过气
# 4
We very well could see the MOASS in the next 2 weeks, which would bring the market to its knees and cause the next big crash similar to what happened in ‘08. These SHF’s are over-leveraged to the Nth degree, the amount of synthetic short shares and derivatives in the form of equity total return swaps is staggering. The SI on GME didn’t go down to 10%, they just hid it from the public with equity total return swaps, which are basically the new synthetic CDO’s (The C-4 that blew up the world during the ‘08 Housing Crisis). When the hedgies get margin called and default, the clearing houses and banks will be liable for their losses. Then the Jenga tower will fall. The market will take a massive shit. We will all be rich, but the financial system will be in ruins… again…

Great Scott!

I know Doc, this is heavy.
醉酒的农人
# 3
Another possible explanation for the model being elevated relative to the actual GME close price is because of the 5M additional released shares during the share offering. All of your training data did not have this share offering included (the dilution will lower the actual share price). You can see the model follows more closely in the first 2/3 of June, and it's fully shifted up by the time the share offering was announced as completed.

If you have the daily "meme stock" data available in some format for creating your model, I'd love to see it and play around with it. I specifically am the modeling expert at my company :)

One last point--it'd be great to show how insane these correlations are by comparing it to some control stocks that are unrelated to meme stocks (ones that I'm guessing are ~0.1 R or less).
M
MagicWizard2
# 2
This means that Swaps only need to have intermediate settlements every quarter despite often being agreed for a minimum of 6 months up to 5 years or more.


Remember that tidbit floating around about how 2008 hadn't resolved yet?


Futures contracts for single equities don't really exist as far as I can tell. Swaps deals or even options contracts are the equivalent of trading futures for equities like GME. Correct me in the comments if I'm wrong here.


There's a documentary available on Prime about the Lehman Brothers crash, where they talk about paying attorneys to dream up creative ways to legally make money. Basically, if you can dream it up and draft it into a document, you can sell it. And if it involves the ISDA, you can keep it out of sight of the public. And if it does eventually get regulated, you can ship it overseas to somewhere it isn't regulated.


But what happens when their bets go bad and they're over leveraged to shit?

Prime Brokers bend over backwards to help them out.


You'll also want to explore this as a conflict of interest from several different perspectives. I'd argue the Prime Brokers are in breach of Fiduciary Obligations to protect their other clients by allowing, and more importantly knowingly facilitating, [the Archegos behavior].
h
hrb123
# 1
Amazing DD. Now, what would be truly amazing as it relates specifically to GME is one of two things: (1) GME issues an NFT dividend, payable in say 90 days, in such a way that it forces a share recall so that only legitimate purchased shares are eligible to receive said dividend, thereby (in theory) forcing the naked shorts, synthetic shares, re-hypothecated shares to cover their positions or (2) [and yes I realize this is an unpopular opinion] Ryan Cohen grows a set of real balls and takes direct action to combat the fuckery that he and the board know is taking place and surpressing the price of the stock. He is personally worth a few billion. His company has zero debt, 3 billion in the bank, and are likely to beat earnings. It is past time to get aggressive and take the fight to the enemy, instead of allowing the enemy to kick you in the ass 9 days out of 10.

Direct action could include, but not be limited to (1) a reverse stock split of a number that forces those holding shorted, naked shorted, synthetic, rehypothecated, or shares hiding in dark pools or collard shares to cover and close out their positions or (2) provide information to SH that is meaningful regarding their investment and the general financial health and direction of the firm, beyond what is required by law.

Wes Bricker of SunTrust puts it best in my opinion.

“What’s important for CFOs to realize is that retail investors are a powerful force, and they must have access to good information about a company. It’s unlikely that every millennial retail investor chatting up a meme stock like GameStop with other “degenerates” has any idea about its executive compensation methods, debt levels, or shrinking margins. Given this possibility, meme stock CFOs must ensure that information outside of mandated regulatory disclosures that are disseminated to ordinary investors is “complete, accurate, and reliable,” says PwC’s Bricker. “Often, the 140-character posts on social media lack enough context about the risks and prospects of a meme stock.”

US Banks Friedman echoes this position.

“If the CFO can validate the retail investors’ enthusiasm through improved operations, increasing sales and cost efficiencies, what started as a cultish response to a flagging brand can result in favorable outcomes,” he says. “That’s a pretty powerful narrative for a CFO to bring to the Board [but the Board must act appropriately to take this information to SH and potential investors who see value in being long on the stock].

So let’s go back to “complete, accurate, reliable information”. Where is it? Certainly not in Twitter posts with chopsticks up the nose.

Do I believe in RC. Probably. Do I believe in GME long term. Absolutely. Did i yolo everything I could afford into my initial purchase in January. Yes. Have I continued to buy more. Yes. Have I grown increasingly frustrated with Cohen and the Board for their abject failure to communicate with the retail SH that saved the firm from BR. Absolutely. Do I believe that their actions, or in most cases, lack of action has delayed MOASS. Maybe. Do I believe their actions, or lack of actions, has prevented the stock from reaching what I would consider to be a fair market price, from which MOASS could then start at any time. Absolutely.

I won’t return to their ongoing breach of fiduciary duty to protect SH value. Other than to say this. That is your fucking value, you can’t look at it in the abstract. Whether you own x or xxxxxxx, you need to understand that GME’s lack of communication with SH (see Bricker above) and their (so far) clear refusal to fight back against the evil doers, much less even acknowledge what is taking place (and no, a nebulous statement in the annual report does not count) is hurting the value of your shares. If you are a SH since January the value of your shares has been manipulated in full few of the GME Board. They have a fiduciary duty to address that. Name one thing they have done.

If you are a long time GME SH than you likely are aware now, if you were not before, that SHF began their incursions into trying to out GME in the ZToys R Us graveyard beginning in 2015-2016. Name one thing the prior Boatd or Mgt did to address the issue.

I will try to refrain from posting about this again. At least in such length. But after 25 years as a lawyer, with much of it in regulatory and corporate governance, I see more I believe than most people see. And a lot of what I see I don’t like, because I know from experience and intimate knowledge of law, that GME can solve this issue. If they desire to do so. So far, despite my yolo, belief in the firm, and my commitment to hold forever, that does not mean I see any desire based on their actions to fix it. I find thst troubling.
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